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Thread: Hawking- Humans won't survive another 1,000 yrs on earth

  1. #1
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    Hawking- Humans won't survive another 1,000 yrs on earth

    The world’s most celebrated physicist and cosmologist issued a call for humans to “continue to go into space for the future of humanity.”

    “I don’t think we will survive another 1,000 years without escaping beyond our fragile planet,” Stephen Hawking said while delivering a lecture on the universe and the origins of humans at the Oxford Union debating society on Monday, according to the British newspaper The Independent.

    Stephen Hawking can understand the universe, but not Donald Trump
    Despite the dire warning, Hawking also tried to sound a hopeful note about the future of human achievement.

    “Remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet,” Hawking said, according to The Independent. “Try to make sense of what you see, wonder about what makes the universe exist. Be curious. However difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at. It matters that you don’t just give up.”

    In recent months, Hawking has used his stature in the sciences to make broad statements about the thorny moral and political dilemmas facing modern societies.

    In an essay published in The Guardian in July, Hawking argued that in order for humans to survive the massive, serious challenges ahead — climate change, overtaxed food production, and overpopulation, to name a few — they need to resist the individualism and isolationism that have fueled political movements like Brexit.

    “We will need to adapt, rethink, refocus and change some of our fundamental assumptions about what we mean by wealth, by possessions, by mine and yours. Just like children, we will have to learn to share,” he wrote.

    “If we fail then the forces that contributed to Brexit, the envy and isolationism not just in the UK but around the world that spring from not sharing, of cultures driven by a narrow definition of wealth and a failure to divide it more fairly, both within nations and across national borders, will strengthen. If that were to happen, I would not be optimistic about the long-term outlook for our species.”
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/stephen-...ears-on-earth/

    I think he underestimates our resiliency. But that little robot knows more than I do, so who knows.

  • #2
    Since we are about to hit peak population and quickly start to decline, shouldn't food shortages, pollution, etc all improve assuming no other changes?

  • #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by CooterBrown View Post
    Since we are about to hit peak population and quickly start to decline, shouldn't food shortages, pollution, etc all improve assuming no other changes?
    I feel like i missed an earlier conversation...why would we 'hit peak population'? Are people going to stop wanting to having sex or what's the background to this theory?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredtheMonkey View Post
    I feel like i missed an earlier conversation...why would we 'hit peak population'? Are people going to stop wanting to having sex or what's the background to this theory?
    Have you seen Terminator?

  • #7
    well,, it hard to say TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie probably preboards planes TexasGangorDie's Avatar
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    he says that like it's a bad thing

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredtheMonkey View Post
    I feel like i missed an earlier conversation...why would we 'hit peak population'? Are people going to stop wanting to having sex or what's the background to this theory?
    I assume he's referring to the tendency of advanced industrialized countries to have fewer children. It's been a fairly widespread phenomena and the trend almost points to negative population growth. For the US, immigration has been a large contributor to our recent population growth.

    Don't worry, people are still going to get some. Just without the kids.

    Will other developing nations follow the same path? That's the key.

  • #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by FredtheMonkey View Post
    I feel like i missed an earlier conversation...why would we 'hit peak population'? Are people going to stop wanting to having sex or what's the background to this theory?
    Major breakthrough in robotic pussy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SBBruin View Post
    Major breakthrough in robotic pussy.
    If virtual reality porn becomes advanced enough, I could see it slowing down reproduction. A pair of HD goggles and a synchronized bobbing machine might be a welcome alternative to dating for many.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 27-25 View Post

    Will other developing nations follow the same path?.
    No34

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    Quote Originally Posted by SBBruin View Post

    I think he underestimates our resiliency. But that little robot knows more than I do, so who knows.
    lulz, I'm pretty sure he knows a little something about human resiliency.

    I don't know about his timeline, but he is ultimately correct. We have to move beyond the earth & do a MUCH better job taking care of our lifeboat if humans want to persist in the universe.

  • #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBBruin View Post
    Major breakthrough in robotic pussy.
    Why in the sink…is your vagina?!

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    ...
    Hawking argued that in order for humans to survive the massive, serious challenges ahead — climate change, overtaxed food production, and overpopulation, to name a few — they need to resist the individualism and isolationism that have fueled political movements like Brexit.

    “We will need to adapt, rethink, refocus and change some of our fundamental assumptions about what we mean by wealth, by possessions, by mine and yours. Just like children, we will have to learn to share,” he wrote.
    ...
    Didn't know that Hawking was a communist. His life experience is much different from the average Joe though, so it probably makes sense to him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bernorange View Post
    Didn't know that Hawking was a communist. His life experience is much different from the average Joe though, so it probably makes sense to him.
    There is a forum on this site where you can politicize everything. Science, math, and caring about other people and the species in general, aren't 'liberal' ideas.
    Last edited by FredtheMonkey; 11-18-2016 at 11:22 AM.

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    What does this guy say:



    He beat Hawking's ass in the Black Hole Wars. Plus he can fix your broken pipes.

  • #17
    he's just jealous.

  • #18
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    He's been saying this for years. His underlying message is sound though that we should move on to a Type 2 civilization. He just doesn't need to get so hyperbolic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bernorange View Post
    Didn't know that Hawking was a communist. His life experience is much different from the average Joe though, so it probably makes sense to him.
    Ever seen Star Trek?

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    I'm surprised we made it this long

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    Quote Originally Posted by loco View Post

    I don't know about his timeline, but he is ultimately correct. We have to move beyond the earth & do a MUCH better job taking care of our lifeboat if humans want to persist in the universe.
    Correct. We are not living on the Earth in a sustainable manner. 7+ billion people, and rapidly climbing. Something is going to give, at some point, if that number doesn't start declining soon and rapidly.

  • #22
    Quote Originally Posted by FredtheMonkey View Post
    There is a forum on this site where you can politicize everything. Science, math, and caring about other people and the species in general, aren't 'liberal' ideas.
    Well, at least they didn't used to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fightin' Buck View Post
    Correct. We are not living on the Earth in a sustainable manner. 7+ billion people, and rapidly climbing. Something is going to give, at some point, if that number doesn't start declining soon and rapidly.
    Problem solved.

  • #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Fightin' Buck View Post
    Correct. We are not living on the Earth in a sustainable manner. 7+ billion people, and rapidly climbing. Something is going to give, at some point, if that number doesn't start declining soon and rapidly.
    That something that will give will be our species. Hoping humans become an interstellar species is hoping for a miracle. There is no reason to believe that we will acquire the technologies for mass migration to other planets yet alone other star systems. The best we can reasonably aspire to is research colonies in our solar system. The interstellar fantasy is rooted in an abstract projection of human technological advancement. It is not rooted in a sober analysis of the difficulties of our situation.

    The idea that the starship Enterprise is just a few generations away is latent in our culture and it leads to complete disregard of posterity. Our assumption is that technological advancement will solve the mess made by our current technologies. That may be true, but only if we combine technological progress with moral progress.
    Last edited by Tribe171; 11-21-2016 at 10:00 PM.

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    I think 1000 years is pretty damn optimistic.

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    We tend to consider the worst in human nature when we look to our past and project our possibilities into the future... but the fact is, our past shows us that we can/do/will work together and not blow ourselves up. As with most high functioning specialists, scientists should stick with what they know (IMO), leave economic situations like Brexit alone.

    I'm more optimistic of our future and I think Hawking should be as well. His life is a testament to how humans treat other life that could not survive on its own. He's consumed many more resources than average and his actual, immediate contributions to society are pretty low... until an engineer can figure out what to do with the info Hawking's gleaned from his black hole research, it's a big fat zero.

  • #28
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    When have we ever worked together?

    The only things humans have ever worked for are self, kings, churches and now corporations.

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    Neither Stephen Hawking nor I will survive another 1,000 years. Bet that.

  • #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChickenNuggets View Post
    We tend to consider the worst in human nature when we look to our past and project our possibilities into the future... but the fact is, our past shows us that we can/do/will work together and not blow ourselves up. As with most high functioning specialists, scientists should stick with what they know (IMO), leave economic situations like Brexit alone.

    I'm more optimistic of our future and I think Hawking should be as well. His life is a testament to how humans treat other life that could not survive on its own. He's consumed many more resources than average and his actual, immediate contributions to society are pretty low... until an engineer can figure out what to do with the info Hawking's gleaned from his black hole research, it's a big fat zero.
    You're right, we should probably have just killed him a long time ago. $#@!ing moocher.

  • #31
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    I'm fairly certain no one I know will survive another 1000 years on Earth, so he's right.

  • #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by MissingInAction View Post
    I think 1000 years is pretty damn optimistic.
    Just think, a thousand more Christmases.

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    Sometimes these brilliant cosmologists are taken to be sages of everything, but often they say pretty stupid things outside of their realm.

    Carl Sagan was a huge political activist and said that if we invade Iraq (Iraq 1) the resulting oil fires would take possibly decades to put out and would be an environmental disaster which would possibly plunge the world into a permanent winter (from all the blocking out smoke) and essentially doom most of the planet. But he was incredibly off on a number of factors, let alone how long it would take to snuff them out. Smokey Boss and Red Adair (and other companies, they weren't the only ones), said move over bitch, I'm coming... and put 90% of the wells out within three months, and all of them by 6 months.

  • #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biff Tannen View Post
    You're right, we should probably have just killed him a long time ago. $#@!ing moocher.
    Not what i'm saying, but not surprised that's what you took from my post.

  • #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by 27-25 View Post
    I assume he's referring to the tendency of advanced industrialized countries to have fewer children. It's been a fairly widespread phenomena and the trend almost points to negative population growth.


    I wouldn't call adding 83 million human beings in a single year, negative growth.
    It does look to have slowed a little, but even if it slows to 1% growth for the next 100 years, you've got 20 billion people. And that would take slower growth than anytime in human history. If it doubles, like it did from 1970-now, you're looking at 40 billion people in the span of a single lifetime. (starting today)

    20-40 billion people using up oil, water, food, generating waste...
    Last edited by FredtheMonkey; 12-02-2016 at 10:44 PM.

  • #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by FredtheMonkey View Post


    I wouldn't call adding 83 million human beings in a single year, negative growth.
    It does look to have slowed a little, but even if it slows to 1% growth for the next 100 years, you've got 20 billion people. And that would take slower growth than anytime in human history. If it doubles, like it did from 1970-now, you're looking at 40 billion people in the span of a single lifetime. (starting today)

    20-40 billion people using up oil, water, food, generating waste...
    That is $#@!ing terrifying.

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    It's why being a rich nation will be a good thing. Natural resources are about to get really $#@!ing expensive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredtheMonkey View Post
    I feel like i missed an earlier conversation...why would we 'hit peak population'? Are people going to stop wanting to having sex or what's the background to this theory?
    Quote Originally Posted by FredtheMonkey View Post


    I wouldn't call adding 83 million human beings in a single year, negative growth.
    It does look to have slowed a little, but even if it slows to 1% growth for the next 100 years, you've got 20 billion people. And that would take slower growth than anytime in human history. If it doubles, like it did from 1970-now, you're looking at 40 billion people in the span of a single lifetime. (starting today)

    20-40 billion people using up oil, water, food, generating waste...
    there is a silver lining in that chart: the steady decline in fertility rate from almost almost 5 to 2.5. Hopefully the trend continues. That is probably the reason for the "peak population" prediction.

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    the minute someone figures out cold fusion the problem of using up our natural resources will be a non factor. i think the population problem will take care of itself, don't know how, but either through education, change in attitude, world war or some kind of devastating pandemic will stabilize and reduce the population.

    also, if a technology get devised that can create things from atoms (such as a replicator on Star Trek) then anything is possible, no more starvation or poverty.

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    Well get on that $#@! and make it happen, miles.

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    Don't worry, aggy solved cold fusion years ago.

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    I never really saw how population growth was suppose to be a concern for the survival of the human race. If it gets to the point that it causes issues, it's not really growing anymore. Yeah, things might be really, really $#@!ty, but if it's $#@!ty enough, it sort of takes care of itself. Eventually you grow to the size of your cage. I don't know if getting a bigger cage really fixes it.

    There is of course the concern of a doomsday device type apocalypse, whether it's nukes, bio, or other yet to be figured out. I would see that as being the biggest concern of wiping out the species. Our only hope of surviving our technology is by pushing it faster.

    And there are the natural causes - asteroid/comet impact, volcano, whatever. I would think unless it's a planet killer, we still have a better shot of survival by defending our rock or riding it out than trying to colonize a new one. And you wouldn't expect a planet killer in the next 1000 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by heso View Post
    No34
    why do you say this? It seems to be that as countries develop, their birthrates drop. Seems like a read somewhere that the biggest driver of lower birth rates is higher education of women.

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    Why is the survival of our species an imperative?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tuco Ramirez View Post
    I never really saw how population growth was suppose to be a concern for the survival of the human race. If it gets to the point that it causes issues, it's not really growing anymore. Yeah, things might be really, really $#@!ty, but if it's $#@!ty enough, it sort of takes care of itself. Eventually you grow to the size of your cage. I don't know if getting a bigger cage really fixes it.
    I think "survival of the human race" and "continuation of life as we know it" are concepts that get confused, whether talking about population growth or climate change or whatever. No, most of these things will not completely end our species, they just make our existence much more difficult and less enjoyable. And a lot of death, but not complete destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fightin' Buck View Post
    there is a silver lining in that chart: the steady decline in fertility rate from almost almost 5 to 2.5. Hopefully the trend continues. That is probably the reason for the "peak population" prediction.
    With the crap we get in our processed foods, I think you can pretty much guarantee fertility rates will continue to decline.

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    With total fertility rates trending toward 1.4 The world population could theoretically drop to zero within 1000 years. The 1.4 number comes about due a lowering in the ideal family size in many people's minds to 2 children, and a third of women are choosing to not have children.

    At some point groups that prefer larger families will dominate, and there will be more support for women with children such as in France today to make the 3 child family more normal. I expect the world population to stabilize at around 1 Billion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fightin' Buck View Post
    there is a silver lining in that chart: the steady decline in fertility rate from almost almost 5 to 2.5. Hopefully the trend continues. That is probably the reason for the "peak population" prediction.
    Note that countries with over half the world's population are already below replacement fertility rate. The world population will peak in 30 to 40 years at the rate the tfrs are dropping.

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    Ends sentence in a preposition. Immediately call into question everything he says.

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